Morrisville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

038
FXUS62 KRAH 191035
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
635 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of upper level disturbances will track east and southeast
through the Mid Atlantic region today through Monday, as a backdoor
cold front approaches from the north. This front will drop south
through North Carolina early Tuesday, allowing a cooler and drier
air mass to build in from north late Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 152 AM Saturday...

Water vapor imagery this morning depicted a few lingering, weak mid-
level perturbations traversing south-central VA. These features have
triggered a few storms along the NC/VA border. Expect a slight
chance for a few additional showers/storms along the border the next
few hours. However, as these mid-level features continue to slide
east, chances for precipitation should subside the rest of the
night.

As we pivot to this afternoon, another wave of mid-level
perturbations (largely centered over the TN Valley this morning)
will kick off convection over the central-southern Appalachians.
These showers and storms will once again spill east across the NC/VA
Piedmont through early tonight. This setup is similar to yesterday
with weak bulk-layer shear (~15 to 20 kts) expected this afternoon
and 00Z HREF helicity swaths largely clustering across south-central
VA.  Forecast soundings indicate a bit lower DCAPE potential today
(~700 to 900 J/kg) with highest values across the NC/VA border.
Strong heating embedded within an anomalously moist air mass will
yield plenty of CAPE for a few stronger updrafts.  If any stronger
storm can develop, damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat.
Best chance for severe weather today will be across the northern
Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain.

While the mean cloud-layer flow will be weaker today, the 00Z HREF
LPMM 6 hourly QPF is not overly impressive this afternoon/evening.
Similarly, the HREF 1 to 3 hourly probabilities for exceeding FFG is
only 10 to 20 % over central NC. As such, think the overall flooding
threat today will be confined to urban areas if training occurs.

Lastly, a Heat Advisory is in effect today for much of central NC.
Daytime highs in the mid 90s are expected, and dew points will
struggle to mix out of the 70s. As such, make sure to practice heat
safety if spending time outdoors today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 152 AM SATURDAY...

Another day with hot and humid conditions, with likely needing a
Heat Advisory for much of our area. Otherwise, it does appear that
flow turns a bit more nwly aloft Sunday afternoon. As such, guidance
has come in with lower coverage on Sunday. We`ll still see 2000 to
3000 J/kg of MLCAPE develop Sunday afternoon. Thus, if any isolated
storms develop there could be a chance for an isolated
pulse/downburst.  Best chances for showers and storms still appear
to be in the far west, closer to the higher terrain where convective
initiation is more likely.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 350 AM Saturday...

* Continued high rain chances Mon, but drier weather arrives for the
  rest of the work week.

* Hot weather eases a bit Mon, then temps head just below normal for
  midweek before the heat returns once again Thu/Fri.

Convection chances remain elevated Mon, as the deep northern stream
low crosses the srn Canadian Maritimes as its accompanying trough
swings through the Northeast, keeping us on the SW edge of the
faster and broadly cyclonic mid level NW flow, although deep layer
bulk shear will remain somewhat modest at 25-30 kts. The plume of
above-normal PW will continue to streak SE over NC, S of the
incoming backdoor surface front. The best coverage looks likely to
be from the Triad (storms rolling off the higher terrain) SE through
the Sandhills and c/srn Coastal Plain, where 1500-2500 J/kg of
MUCAPE is expected. Will keep good chance to likely pops. Greater
cloud cover and earlier convection across the NW CWA should keep
highs there in the upper 80s to around 90, but elsewhere,
thicknesses will still support highs in the low-mid 90s.

Apart from small chances of late-day convection in the far NW and
far SE, much of the rest of the work week appears mostly dry, with
temps dipping to near to below normal midweek before rebounding late
week. Confidence is increasing that we`ll see the rare summertime
synoptic frontal passage Mon night or early Tue, as a relatively
cooler high with lower dewpoints in the 60s builds in from the Great
Lakes and St Lawrence Valley, while aloft, the longwave trough halts
briefly off the East Coast. This surface high is expected to slide E
and off the Northeast and Mid Atlantic coast by Thu while still
extending down through NC in an almost CAD-like configuration,
including lowering surface pressures along the Southeast coast as an
inverted trough develops. Highs should be mostly in the 80s Tue/Wed,
with relatively low humidity for this time of year. Once the high
pushes further out over the open NW Atlantic by Thu/Fri and
modifies, the heat is likely to return as the deep mid level
anticyclone builds from the central Miss Valley eastward across
NC/VA. By Fri we will begin to see a breakdown of the drier
conditions, as moisture flux from off the Southeast coast increases,
leading to returning shower chances esp along and E of the I-95
corridor. And certainly, given the time of year and warmth of the
water just off the Carolina coast, sub-tropical low development
along the inverted trough can`t be ruled out, and we will monitor
this over the coming days. Highs Fri should be above normal, in the
low-mid 90s. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 635 AM Saturday...

VFR conditions are likely to dominate through at least early
afternoon. Isolated pockets of light ground fog are noted over the
area, but coverage is very low and not located near any TAF sites.
Otherwise, cloud cover through early afternoon will consist mostly
of sct-bkn mid and high thin clouds. Another round of scattered
storms is expected later today, moving toward the E or ESE from NW
NC, reaching INT/GSO as early as 18z-19z, then RDU at 20-21z and
RWI/FAY by 21-22z, although the better chances will skew an hour or
two after these times. Any storms are expected to exit to our east
by 05z. Isolated sub-VFR conditions may develop after 08z early Sun
morning, esp across the N, but confidence is low. Surface winds will
be light and variable through mid morning, then mainly from the SW
or W but still under 10 kts away from storms through the end of the
TAF period.

Looking beyond 12z Sun, scattered to numerous showers and storms are
possible both Sun and Mon in the mid afternoon through mid evening,
with patchy daybreak sub-VFR conditions possible early Mon. For
Tue/Wed, as drier air spreads in from the north with ridging
building aloft, VFR conditions should prevail, as we`ll see drier
air with low rain chances and low chances for early-morning fog or
stratus. -GIH

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 19: KGSO: 75/2016 KFAY: 77/2023
July 20: KGSO: 75/2019 KRDU: 76/2020 KFAY: 80/1996
July 21: KGSO: 76/2011 KRDU: 78/1932 KFAY: 80/2017

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT today for NCZ008>011-024>028-
040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...Hartfield
CLIMATE...RAH